the-commercial-investor.com

Despite yesterday’s bounce in the stock market – which was based on the visible signs of action on the Economy by Obama’s team than any fundamental change in market conditions – we are in for a long hard Recession. AND Black Friday’s sales numbers will be a major signpost in the Recession’s depth and length.

It is almost as if Black Friday is our economic Groundhog Day.

You remember the Groundhog … Punxsutawny Phil who comes out every February 2nd to see if he can see his shadow.

• If he sees his shadow … we get 6 more weeks of Winter
• If he doesn’t … spring is upon us.

I believe Black Friday’s Sales Reports will be the equivalent of Groundhog Day for our Economy … here’s why…

The pundits have already dropped their sales predictions to rock bottom and all are predicting the worst Holiday Sales season on record. Everyone around the world is holding their breath and hoping the good old American Consumer can pull some money from orifice somewhere and keep buying more stuff they don’t need. 

• If the Black Friday sales numbers are more of a bummer than predicted – we are in for 18 months of economic ”Winter” and an especially deep recession.
• If the Black Friday sales numbers beat forecasts … economic “Spring” may be upon us on a much shorter timeline.

I am personally pulling on the consumer to bring on a surprise to the upside of what is expected. If for no other reason than to slow down the bailout fever driving the effective nationalization of major niches in our economy. Go Consumer … Go.

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.